Business & Education Services, North America: 3Q26 Earnings Preview: Key Themes: AI, Rates, Energy

We provide our thoughts on our Business Services coverage ahead of earnings. Similar to prior quarters, we expect any organic growth weakness to be punished and attributed to AI. Guidance is unlikely to be aggressive given rates and energy prices. We think the key topics in the quarter will revolve around: 1) AI, 2) Rates, and 3) Energy. While the AI debate has not materially changed fundamentally, investors' AI-disruption views are largely factored into current share prices. Given the surge in interest rates (US 10-yr Treasury yield from 4.4% in June to 4.75% in Sept and now 5.2%), management teams, particularly in credit-exposed industries, could be conservative on guidance. Organic growth should again be the key focus metric across the group. Within Info Services, the Rating Agencies, Credit Bureaus, and Index Providers are the most defensible sub-industries with relation to AI risks, and the waste peers (WCN, RSG, WM) remain well insulated. We remain OW on TRU, SPGI, MSCI, EFX, WCN