Societe Generale (SOGN.PA): Credible Self-Help Story, Obscured by Macro Noise

SocGen's Capital Markets Day delivered what we were hoping for: a plan that is both ambitious and credible despite a challenging French macroeconomic backdrop. Management introduced 2029 targets of 13-14% ROTE, 3% revenue CAGR and a cost/income ratio below 55%, while maintaining conservative macro assumptions and relying largely on initiatives within its control. We see the >15% ROTE ambition for 2030 and beyond as the more important message, with the potential to significantly narrow the profitability gap versus leading European banks. We increase our EPS forecasts by 2-4% (+15% CAGR to 2029), see 2029E ROTE at 13.8%, and raise our TP to EUR89. Buy. The CMD reinforces our long-held view that SocGen remains one of the most compelling transformation stories in European banks, complemented by substantial shareholder distributions (management targeting >EUR21bn of cumulative distributions in 2026-29;