我们预计唯品会2026年第三季度收入同比下降4.6%至204亿元人民币，与公司持平至同比下降5%的指引区间相吻合。受节假日错期影响及对标准化品类促销投放纪律性的约束，预计服装及标准化品类增长承压。展望未来，我们预计唯品会将通过提升SVIP会员服务体验、差异化供给来巩固核心用户的心智份额与消费份额；杉杉奥特莱斯业务的健康增长有望支撑服务收入同比增长，持续的股东回报或对估值形成一定支撑。我们预计三季度GMV同比下降0.7%至428亿元，收入与GMV增速差维持在中个位数，主要反映线下杉杉奥特莱斯业务以服务收入入账带来的GMV双位数增长以及退货率同比上升。预计三季度毛利率23.1%，同比提升0.1个百分点；非GAAP净利率6.3%，同比下降0.7个百分点，主要因收入下滑带来的经营去杠杆、高毛利杉杉业务出表以及退货率上升带来的增量成本。
We estimate that VIPshop's 3Q26 revenue declined by 4.6% YoY to RMB20.4bn, in line with company guidance of flat to -5% YoY. We expect apparel and standardized categories to face growth pressure due to festival timing shifts and disciplined promotional spending on standardized products. Looking ahead, we expect Vipshop to solidify its mindshare and wallet share among core users by enhancing service experience for SVIP members and differentiating its supply. We also expect service revenue to grow YoY, supported by healthy growth in the Shanshan Outlets business. Sustained shareholder returns could lend some support to its valuation. Maintain BUY. We estimate that 3Q26 GMV declined by 0.7% YoY to RMB42.8bn, and the gap between revenue growth and GMV growth remained mid-single-digit. We estimate the 3Q26 gross margin at 23.1%, up by 0.1pp YoY, and the 3Q26 non-GAAP net margin at 6.3%, down by 0.7pp YoY. We maintain our 2026/2027/2028 non-GAAP net profit forecasts of RMB6.50/8.02/8.14bn. U