Sinch AB (SINCH.ST): Updating estimates post results; Remain Sell

We update our estimates for Sinch for FX and post 2Q26 results, which were characterized by better-than-expected revenue but weaker gross profit growth, margins, and EBITDA. We accordingly raise our FY26 revenue growth estimate to c.5% yoy organic ex-FX (vs. c.3% previously), but lower our FY26 GP growth estimate to c.4% yoy organic ex-FX (vs. c.5% previously), reflecting weaker margins in the quarter and an expected OPEX uptick in 3Q26. Looking ahead, we await further evidence of sustained organic GP growth acceleration. Key near-term headwinds remain: competitive pressure in geographies such as India and Australia, the ramp-down of fixed-price contracts in EMEA, and questions around the sustainability of Americas growth. Notably, the rolling 4-quarter average organic revenue growth of c.5% remains meaningfully below the company's 7-9% guidance target by 2027. Our 12-month price target increases from SEK 20 to SEK 22.5, primarily driven by the quarter roll-forward as well as an increa