GATX 3Q Preview: Softer '26 LPI outlook offset by NA carload/Engine Leas. strength; Growing LT natgas catalyst narrative

We caught up with GATX and some of its investors on market trends. We note a growing narrative of long-term upside potential for GATX on ramp in natgas usage by data centers. Nearer term, we anticipate Rail North America's LPI outlook to step-down to the lower end of the prior high-teens-to-low-20s range for '26 as the 2Q hopper impact will not be lapped until 1Q27. This is partly offset by sustained strength in NA carloads (on continued truck capacity exits driven by policy enforcement) supporting lease rates. Rail NA remarketing, which was strong in 2Q, remains lumpy qtr-to-qtr, driving our expectation that 3Q should step down, with the full-year guide maintained. But we expect Engine Leasing remarketing to remain strong, driving the high end of the segment profit guide range. We maintain Buy, raise our TP to $216 (from $215) on maintaining 19x our '27e adj. EPS, and raise our '26e/'27e/'28e adj. EPS to $10.25/$11.35/$12.20 (from $10.20/$11.30/$12.15).