Wynn Resorts, Ltd (WYNN US): 3Q Takeaways; Macau Still Tough, Las Vegas Poised to Outperform, Al Marjan on Track; Reaffirm OW, $112 PT

Wynn's 3Q adjusted EBITDAR of $464m came in 4% below JPMorgan's estimate and 8% below consensus, with management calling it a complicated quarter with more headwinds than tailwinds. Macau EBITDA of $255m was in line with JPMorgan but missed after adjusting for $12m of favorable hold; Las Vegas EBITDA of $159m missed the $176m estimate yet was in line to better after adjusting for $24m of favorable hold; Boston missed slightly on recent labor issues. Forward commentary was mixed: Macau remains complex with Golden Week flat and metrics deteriorating through October, Las Vegas looks much better for 4Q given a busy event calendar and F1 pacing up year over year, and a Boston union deal may have been reached at the time of publication. The $5.7bn UAE project remains roughly on budget and on track for a September 2027 opening. The analyst lowers the December 2027 price target to $112 from $115 on roughly 1% estimate cuts, with the sum-of-the-parts comprising $58 for Las Vegas and Boston, $25