Kodiak Sciences Inc (KOD.US): Recent pullback on de-risking, we reiterate strong upside on 2 studies coming

Big Picture: Stock has pulled back ahead of upcoming Phase III wet AMD data reflecting some nervousness given the old formulation of the drug previously failed in wet AMD. Following the recent pullback we see an even more attractive opportunity here ahead of the DAYBREAK topline and with more upside on MESI data in December. We remain optimistic that both tarcocimab and '501 should hit on non-inferiority to Eylea 2mg in wet AMD with tarcocimab demonstrating compelling 3-3.5 month dosing intervals despite the real-world treat-to-dryness retreatment criteria. Thus this creates a similar set-up to the Phase III GLOW2 DR data in March where the stock pulled back ahead of the event then rallied 70% on clean data. We expect a press release by the end of September with data presentation at AAO on Oct 9. We think tarcocimab should hit on non-inferiority on BCVA vision gains to Eylea 2mg given it already hit in the Phase III DAYLIGHT wet AMD study with monthly dosing. KOD is also evaluating KSI