Kraft Heinz 3Q:26 - A modest beat, but few hints on guidance for 2027 until the investor day next week

Kraft Heinz enjoyed a modest beat on the top and bottom line this quarter, but new guidance implies EBIT for 4Q will be ~5% below consensus estimates and the EPS raise was largely due to taxes, while EBIT guidance was left intact since ~4.5% of the 10.6% beat was reportedly driven by lower-than-expected trade spend which will reverse next quarter. Nonetheless, the modest 0.9% beat on organic sales growth and raising of the lower end of OSG guidance for the year is a plus. 2026 was a year of reinvestment in the business, with $700m set aside to stabilize and reinvigorate the top line, mainly in the US. Yet three quarters into the year, management noted that consumption performance in U.S. Retail this quarter was broadly similar to what we have seen so far this year, and this plays out in what we are seeing in the U.S. Nielsen data, with little meaningful improvement to share trends. We are also not seeing much in the takeaway data on volume trends improving as yet, which begs whether st