野村发布网易（NTES.US）3Q26F业绩前瞻报告，题为"季度表现平淡"，维持买入评级，并基于分部估值小幅下调目标价。我们预计当季总收入同比实现增长，但仍低于市场一致预期，主要因在线游戏及增值服务收入受PC端《梦幻西游》高基数与7月上线的新品《Sea of Remnants》表现平淡拖累所致。尽管收入偏弱，受益于毛利率改善与持续的经营杠杆，非GAAP经营利润率预计同比明显提升，非GAAP经营利润同比增长约三成；但受游戏收入疲弱及有效税率上升影响，非GAAP净利润增速明显低于经营利润增速，且不及市场预期。我们预计四季度游戏表现仍将平淡，直至2027年1月重磅新品《Ananta》上线，因此下调未来两年非GAAP每股收益预测，以反映《Sea of Remnants》的不及预期表现。估值采用分部加总法，游戏业务按全球同业平均市盈率估值，音乐与有道按最新市值并计入控股折价。
Nomura's 3Q26F preview on NetEase (NTES.US), titled "A quiet quarter", maintains a Buy rating while modestly cutting the target price on a sum-of-the-parts basis. We forecast total revenue to grow year on year in 3Q26F but to come in below the latest Bloomberg consensus, reflecting softer online gaming and VAS revenue dragged by a high comparison base for PC title FWJ and the lackluster performance of Sea of Remnants, launched in July. Despite the softer top line, we expect the non-GAAP operating margin to expand meaningfully year on year on a 3.4pp gross margin improvement and continued operating leverage, with non-GAAP operating profit up roughly 30% y-y. Non-GAAP net profit growth, however, is expected to lag operating profit growth and miss consensus, partly reflecting weaker gaming revenue and a higher assumed effective tax rate. We expect gaming performance to remain muted in 4Q26F ahead of the highly anticipated launch of Ananta in January 2027, and we lower our FY26F/FY27F non-