JCDecaux (JCDX.PA): Examining momentum in Digital OOH, with Brazil a potential case study for Programmatic adoption

Our analysis suggests digitalisation remains the primary driver of JCDecaux's medium-term growth with early evidence of the transition to programmatic. Our base case is traditional analog revenues are likely to remain broadly flat to declining, as digital revenues continue to outgrow the group and increase as a share of revenues. Based on our sensitivity, digital revenues could grow at a ~10-14% CAGR over FY26-30E even assuming low-single-digit declines in traditional analog revenues to achieve our group forecast. We remain Neutral-rated, with the favourable structural outlook for digital-led growth balanced by current valuation. Programmatic remains only ~5% of group revenues, but is growing around 2x faster than Digital OOH and generates ~25% higher CPMs; penetration has increased from ~7% of digital revenues in 1H23 to >12% in 1H26. Management has highlighted Brazil as an example where platforms such as Trade Desk and DV360 have accelerated programmatic adoption.