SpaceX: Potential for MVNO D2D growth? Continuing our assessment of SpaceX Connectivity business and telco impact

As SpaceX prepares for Starship launch 14 and plans to deploy the first operational V3 Starlink satellites, we assess the potential for an MVNO option for direct-to-device (D2D) service, which we have seen as most attractive since our initiation on SpaceX. Traditional MVNO economics are constrained by four factors: customer acquisition cost, device subsidies, lower service pricing, and network access fees paid to MNOs. For Starlink, the first three are largely dictated by market structure and remain inevitable while the business is subscale, but network costs may be different. The average US wireless subscriber offloads roughly 80% of data consumption to Wi-Fi, and cable operators have pushed offload rates above 85% through Wi-Fi-first architectures;