HSBC Holdings PLc (HSBA.L) 3Q26 - Small Revenue Miss, PBT In-Line, Targets Unchanged, Capital Mixed

Citi keeps a Neutral rating on HSBC Holdings (HSBA.L) with a target price of 1,640p versus the current 13.65 pound share price, implying 20.1% expected price return and 25.5% total return. 3Q26 underlying PBT of US$10.0bn was in line with company-collected consensus, with revenues a 2% miss, costs in line and impairments 21% lighter; reported PBT of US$9.6bn was 1% shy. The revenue miss came from both NII (2% miss, 1% after one-offs) and non-NII (1% miss). CET1 of 13.9% was 20bps below consensus on OCI losses, while the new US$1.0bn buyback was in line. FY26 and medium-term targets are unchanged (banking NII above US$46bn, ~1% adjusted cost growth, ~45bps loan loss ratio, 5% revenue growth by 2028, RoTE of at least 17% and CET1 of 14.0-14.5% with 50% payout). YTD RoTE of 18.8% is already well ahead of guidance, and Basel 3.1 is expected to add 40-50bps to CET1 in January 2027, supporting consensus EPS for 2027 and beyond.