Ternium (TX): CFO Meeting Takeaways: Uniquely Positioned into 2027

We hosted Ternium's CFO, Mr. Pablo Brizzio, for a virtual meeting with investors. Ternium's Mexico outlook (~65% of EBITDA) is strong and improving, supported by favorable trade policy (mostly anti-dumping on Asian steel), lower imports, improving end-demand, and consequent price increases. Ternium has been gaining market share and management expects that to continue as the Pesqueria $4B capex is finalized by YE26 and the new finished product line ramps up. Further upside could arise from a USMCA trade agreement that would allow Mexican HRC prices to trade at par or at a premium to the US (currently at a ~30% discount vs. a 10% premium historically). In Brazil, the market remains challenging, and the decision to proceed with a major iron ore capex should be taken in late 2026/early 2027. Argentina is past the trough from a volume perspective, but margins have been volatile due to FX and cost volatility. We see Ternium in a unique position, finalizing a major capex cycle with a net cash