Home Bancshares, Inc. (HOMB.N) 3Q26 Review - Modest PPNR Miss, but Core NII and PPNR Outlook Remains Solid

HOMB's 3Q results delivered a modestly softer than expected quarter with core loan growth and AEA slower than expected, mitigated by stronger NIM trends, along with softer fee income and a well managed expense base, resulting in overall PPNR slightly below consensus. From the higher interest rate outlook, the go-forward NIM is structured to increase as rates rise and core NII results should remain strong, if not continue to grow with the integration of MCB. Capital deployment seems to be a high priority for HOMB, which likely comes via buyback or M&A (although management noted that nothing is pending). We tweaked our TP to $31 (-$1), on a combination of a modestly better EPS outlook and a modestly higher CoE. Our 2026/2027 EPS expansion was mostly driven by better-than-previously modeled NIM trends as we update our Fed forward curve, now building in one hike in December, partially mitigated by modestly softer fee income and higher operating expenses;