亿滋国际（MDLZ.US）：2026年三季报前瞻：欧洲炎夏或冲击部分巧克力业务，但大概率不会拖累亿滋国际盈利

Mondelez (MDLZ - Overweight) will report 3Q26 earnings on Thursday, October 29th. For 3Q, we model organic sales growth of +2.1%, just above the Consensus Metrix estimate of +2.0%, with upside in AMEA and Latin America offsetting softness in Europe (hot weather). We model EPS inline ($0.71), though cocoa deflation could be a source of upside. We think MDLZ's 2026 outlooks for both items probably hold, as should its messaging about "strong" earnings growth in 2027. That said, mounting COGS inflation (fuel, corn, wheat, and perhaps cocoa later) suggests on-algorithm high-single-digit EPS growth is a prudent starting point. We continue to see a clearer path to organic sales and earnings growth for MDLZ than for most others in our food coverage (hence Overweight), but do not see the 3Q print as a meaningful upside catalyst. We lower 2027E EPS to $3.31 (+9% Y/Y) from $3.36 and 2028E to $3.54 from $3.66; our December 2027 price target goes to $71 from $72.