Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVOb.CO): CMD does little to excite; execution on Wegovy pill IO launches key

Citi's key takes from Novo's CMD: Novo's CMD offered little to change our cautious view, with MSD topline growth ambition for 26-30E in line with consensus but broadly stable margins below. Novo is positioning for the post-sema era through >5 planned multi-blockbuster launches by 2030 and >DKK150bn risk-adjusted pipeline sales by 2035 (largely reflected in consensus). Updated oral obesity capacity (10x more oral GLP-1 patients by 2030) and >20 Wegovy pill IO launches in 27E are encouraging, but execution is key. Novo also intends to broaden growth beyond obesity/T2D into Blood & Endocrine Disorders, CV and liver (already assumed in consensus) and sees the CagriSema 27E launch as a key opportunity to beat consensus (Street skeptical). M&A focus remains bolt-on but management did not rule out a large transaction, creating some inherent risk. Maintain Neutral / High Risk, target price DKK310.