报告维持接收（做多）5年10年30年SONIA蝶式利差头寸，并对英国前端通胀挂钩债券保持看多偏向，整体维持温和看多且曲线趋平的交易思路。英国利率曲线目前仍计入约100个基点的加息，明显高于摩根士丹利基准情形，同时市场对12月、3月等非预测会议连续加息赋予超过50%的概率；能源价格与美联储鹰派重定价对估值构成上行压力，前端存在下行风险。ACM模型分解显示，近期美债长端收益率上行主要由期限溢价驱动，而英国期限溢价反而回落，因此英国长端相对美债有望继续跑赢。前端资产互换利差（ASW）在波动与多头平仓下持续承压，预算案公布前存在温和下行风险，预算案对互换利差的影响可能大于对国债本身的影响。下周重点关注英国央行官员讲话与美国通胀数据。
The report maintains a receive position in the 5s10s30s SONIA flyer and keeps a bullish bias in front-end UK linkers, retaining a modest bullish and flattening trade bias. The UK strip still prices roughly 100bp of hikes, well above Morgan Stanley's base case, with the market also assigning more than a 50% probability of sequential hikes at non-forecast MPC meetings such as December and March. Energy prices and the hawkish Fed repricing remain headwinds to valuations, and downside risks persist at the front end. The ACM decomposition suggests the recent rise in long-end US yields has been driven mainly by term premium, whereas the UK term premium has drifted lower, supporting further relative outperformance of the UK long end versus the US. Front-end ASWs have remained under tightening pressure amid volatility and long-position unwinds, with modest downside risks ahead of the Budget, which may have more meaningful implications for swap spreads than for gilts. Focus next week will be on