摩根士丹利发布达美航空（DAL.US）2026年第三季度业绩与指引简评。达美3Q26每股收益1.72美元，低于摩根士丹利预测的1.79美元和市场一致预期的1.77美元；调整后营业收入175.85亿美元，低于市场预期但同比增长约16%，调整后营业利润16.62亿美元。三季度运力持平而收入增长16%，主舱单位收入增长17%，需求环比走强，主舱与高端舱均未见消费走弱迹象；多元化收入（高端舱、忠诚度、货运、MRO）占总收入61%，其中高端舱收入增18%、忠诚度收入增18%（与美国运通合作收入增15%，全年有望超90亿美元）、货运收入增29%。非燃油单位成本同比增7.3%。管理层指引四季度收入同比增长约20%、营业利润率7%-9%、燃油成本每加仑4.25美元、每股收益1.15-1.65美元。
We would be buyers of DAL (and Airlines broadly) today following stronger-than-expected fuel-adjusted 4Q guidance and encouraging commentary around demand resilience, with no signs of deterioration across either main cabin or premium. DAL reported 3Q26 EPS of $1.72, below MSe $1.79 and cons. $1.77. Adj. Operating Revenues were $17.585 bn, below MSe $17.927 bn and cons. $17.652 bn but up ~16% y/y; Adj. Operating Income was $1,662mm. Revenue grew 16% y/y on flat capacity with main cabin unit revenue up 17%, as demand strengthened sequentially with no signs of consumer deterioration. Diversified revenue streams accounted for 61% of total revenues, with premium revenue up 18%, loyalty revenue up 18% (AMEX remuneration up 15%, on track to exceed $9 bn this year), cargo revenue up 29%. Non-fuel CASM increased 7.3% y/y. Management guided 4Q revenue up ~20% y/y, 4Q op. margins of 7-9%, 4Q fuel cost per gallon of $4.25, and 4Q EPS of $1.15-$1.65. While we remain on daily fuel MTM watch, the str