Bloomin' Brands Inc (BLMN.O): Setting the Table for 3Q26: Beefing Up The Quality/Value Message

Citigroup maintains a Neutral/High Risk rating on Bloomin' Brands (BLMN.O) and lowers its target price to US$12.25 from US$12.75, based on ~5x NTM EV/EBITDA and a ~10% FCF yield, implying 19.3% expected total return. Ahead of the 3Q26 call on November 6, Citi focuses on the early response to the "Best Steaks Ever" campaign launched October 8, the addition of a 6oz sirloin to the Aussie 3 Course at US$15.99 and its mix implications, the four-table service model, changes to GM compensation, and beef inflation. Placer data show Outback footfall down 2.4% y/y, an improvement of 40bp, while market-share losses widened to 16bp from 11bp; Second Measure sales/transactions fell 1.6%/4.7% and check growth was 3.2%. The ArrowStream choice beef cutout index is roughly flat y/y. Citi adjusts 2026/2027E EPS to US$0.97/US$1.13 from US$0.97/US$1.10. Although near-term SSS trends and a peer disruption may help, Citi is hesitant to chase the recent move given macro and multi-year beef inflation risks.