SKF 2026年三季度回顾及模型更新：已不再是"便宜"的周期股，维持减持

SKF's Q3 was ahead on all lines on a like-for-like basis (i.e. excluding Auto) but the Q4 guide "strengthen somewhat" came in lower than where consensus was sitting (c.4.3%). On the call, management clarified that some of the growth in the Americas was supported by pre-buys. Some benefits from earlier price increases were showing through but management is assessing when it would be appropriate to put through further price increases, suggesting potential price/cost issues heading into Q4 and 2027. We update our model for the pro-forma numbers now that Auto is in discontinued operations (until Dec 1). Our reported EPS estimates change by +3% / -3% / 1% for 2026-2028E. The stock is now trading on 15.1x 12m fwd P/E, more than 1 standard deviation above its 5 year average, which more than accounts for the Auto separation in our view. As such, we do not see SKF as a "cheap" cyclical stock and see risk to both top-line growth and margins in an uncertain macro environment. We remain Underweigh