SpaceX: Update and raise target to $268 - Terrestrial AI build and enterprise broadband add to Orbital AI thesis; Outperform

We raise our SpaceX outlook primarily on terrestrial AI build plans and lift our price target to $268 from $248, maintaining Outperform. The case for a multi-trillion dollar valuation rests on orbital data centers, but the company's terrestrial AI outlook is a material add to the revenue path, and Enterprise & Government Connectivity is outperforming (revenue +91% in the quarter). SpaceX now projects $500bn to $1tn in revenues exiting 2027; our estimate is well below, with full 2028 at $424bn and 2031 raised to $784bn. We now assume 13GW of terrestrial compute by end-2027, 5GW above our prior estimate, rising to 20.1GW by end-2028, with capex of roughly $35bn per GW and average compute pricing of $26/watt in 2027 before gradually declining. First orbital data center launches are planned for late 2027 with operations beginning mid-2028, and full Starship reusability remains key. We lower our AI multiple to 17x from 21x as AI-oriented stocks have softened and raise the Space segment disc