报告指出，中期选举后能源与股票价格下跌令美元波动加剧，市场开始质疑美元指数（DXY）是否会进一步走低。短期看，投资者调仓可能使波动延续，能源价格回落或推动资金从对大宗商品敏感的风险货币，转向周期性商品进口国货币；报告认为瑞典克朗是能源价格下行的最明显受益者。中期看，基本面叙事并未实质改变，经济数据仍偏正面，风险偏好有望获得支撑，美元四状态框架仍处于套息交易体制，利好高息风险货币、利空低息融资货币。对于美元指数，若能源价格走低压低美债收益率，或带来战术性走弱，但报告建议把这种走弱视为逢低加多的机会，因为美元走强的基本面逻辑依然稳固，并将在2027年一季度进一步增强。策略上，报告建议保留高质量风险货币的多头、避免以美元融资，转而以欧元或日元融资；维持做空欧元兑澳元，维持美元对英镑、日元的选择性多头，并在欧元兑美元反弹至1.1350至1.14时加仓做空，从而全面转为看多美元。
The post-midterms price action has been volatile, particularly the drop in energy and equity prices, which has increased USD volatility and raised questions over whether DXY will trend further lower. Near term, this volatility could continue as investors rotate positions; in FX, lower energy prices could catalyse a rotation away from commodity-sensitive risk currencies toward cyclical commodity importers such as SEK, which our work suggests is the clearest beneficiary of lower energy prices. More medium term, the fundamental and benign narrative has not changed materially: risk appetite should stay supported as economic data remain positive, and we expect to remain in the Carry Regime of our four-regime USD framework for longer, favouring risk currencies against low-yielding funders. For DXY, while lower energy prices and lower US yields could generate further tactical weakness, we would fade that move and use the sell-off to add longs, as the fundamental case for DXY gains is strong a