摩根大通欧洲股票研究团队发布2026年10月26日晨会纪要,汇总策略、宏观、固收及行业与个股观点。股票策略方面,Mislav Matejka 指出法国政治与财政整顿仍面临挑战,但市场对法国的情绪已极度悲观,CAC40相对市盈率处于历史低位,预算在未来1至2个月通过将是小幅正面,建议做多非法国本土敞口、低配法国本土标的的对冲交易;油价走高构成逆风,但美债与德债收益率见顶回落的判断仍在兑现,SPW相对SPX、价值相对成长的修复交易有望延续。法国银行业因OAT利差进一步走阔而持续跑输,当前对应2028年5.5倍市盈率,利差波动料使股权成本维持高位。欧洲电信方面,高收益债"负权益"逻辑持续演绎,上调BT评级、下调Telefonica至低配。个股层面,Genmab的Rina-S在铂耐药卵巢癌II期RAINFOL-02中显示71%无进展生存获益,显著超预期。
J.P. Morgan's Europe Equity Research publishes its morning meeting note for 26 October 2026, aggregating strategy, macro, fixed income, sector and company views. On equity strategy, Mislav Matejka argues the French political and fiscal backdrop stays challenging, yet sentiment on France is already very downbeat, CAC40 relative P/E is at record lows, and the budget likely passing over the next one to two months would be a small positive; he recommends an overweight in non-French domestic exposure versus French domestic plays. Higher oil is a headwind, but the rollover in bond yields called for earlier this month is tracking, supporting the broadening trade, a rebound in SPW versus SPX and in Value versus Growth. French banks have kept underperforming on further OAT spread widening and trade at 5.5x 2028E earnings, with spread volatility likely to keep cost of equity elevated. In European telecoms, the high-yield "negative equity" thesis continues to proliferate: BT is upgraded and Telef