本报告对美股生物技术行业进行系统性回顾与展望，认为行业前景强劲，主要由三大顺风驱动：监管不确定性基本消除、并购环境强劲、融资与资本市场窗口为生物技术公司提供现金生命线。大型药企持续表达对小规模补强型交易的稳定兴趣且资产负债表火力充足，2026年生物技术并购金额年内已达约1200亿美元，超过2025年全年并创下新纪录，2025-26年重现超50亿美元的大型交易。IPO市场持续开放，全年或达30-40宗，2026年新股平均较发行价上涨约70%，且发行人以更后期临床阶段的高质量企业为主。估值并不昂贵，EV/现金约3倍，与20年均值一致，未见泡沫。报告同时提示风险：利率长期高企、IPO市场过热（早期/临床前企业涌入）、政治与地缘政治不确定性及对中国对外授权依赖上升。
We believe the biotech sector has a strong outlook ahead, driven by three key tailwinds: (1) regulatory uncertainty is largely behind us, (2) strong M&A environment, and (3) robust financing and capital markets window to provide the lifeline of cash for biotech. We believe M&A will continue as big pharma cos continue to voice steady appetite for more tuck-in deals; and the balance sheet firepower is strong. The IPO market is opening up and we could see 30-40 IPOs this year. The performance of 2026 IPOs is trading 80% above deal price with an average return of 80%. 2026 biotech M&A has already reached ~$120B YTD, surpassing FY25 and setting a new record pace. Valuation is not expensive. We don't see a "bubble". EV/cash is 3x which is right in line with the 20-year average. Despite the run-up, biotech is only trading at average valuations. Risks include higher-for-longer interest rates, IPO market overheating, and political and geopolitical uncertainty.