Global Building Materials — Concrete to Compute: US datacenter impact on heavy materials

Using UBS Evidence Lab data, real-world evidence and proprietary modelling, we attempt to answer a question many investors have asked recently, which is how much of an impact the US datacenter (DC) construction boom could have on heavy building materials consumption, cement, concrete and aggregates. Conclusion: in our base case, we estimate DC will grow from ~1% of total US cement consumption currently to 2-2.5% in the next 1-2 years (upside case: 5-6%), driving ~1.5% cement demand growth at peak or ~3% in our upside scenario. While these numbers may be less awe-inspiring than the DD% DC-related growth seen in semis or electrical suppliers, we took our analysis one step further and dove into state-level DC construction growth, and overlayed this with company state-level exposures to estimate a company-by-company volume impact. On that basis, in our main scenario, companies such as HEI and BZU see the biggest US volume tailwind at 2-4% at peak, or 6-8% in our upside case. The biggest su