Bayer 3Q'26 consensus comparison: Seasonal Crop weakness already anticipated by the market; expect FY26 guidance reiteration to reassure

Ahead of Bayer reporting 3Q'26 results on November 3, 2026, this report compares J.P. Morgan estimates with Vara Consensus. We forecast 3Q'26 Group Revenues of €10,094m, 2% ahead of Consensus of €9,918m, and EBITDA (u/l) of €1,336m, 6% below Consensus of €1,425m; Core EPS of €0.24 is 34% below Consensus of €0.36. By division: Crop Science revenues of €4,046m are 3% ahead of Consensus, but EBITDA (u/l) of just €62m is 62% below Consensus of €164m on a c.260bps lower margin (1.5% vs Cons 4.2%) due to a return to normal seasonality; Pharma revenues of €4,512m and EBITDA (u/l) of €1,063m are 1% and 3% ahead of Consensus respectively;