中国财政部意外宣布，自2027年4月起将乘用车新能源车出口增值税退税从现行的13%下调至9%，早于市场预期。该政策仅适用于乘用车新能源车，不涉及燃油车及新能源重卡，故中国重汽不受影响；而乘用车新能源出口占比较高的比亚迪、零跑、吉利将受冲击，长城汽车与奇瑞汽车影响相对较小。敏感性分析假设2027年4月生效前车企提前加速出口以获取13%退税、FOB价格约为比亚迪/吉利/长城15万元、奇瑞11万元、零跑9万元，并假设厂商零售价不变，测算2027年盈利潜在下滑幅度为比亚迪与零跑约18%、吉利约10%、长城与奇瑞约6%-8%。后续需关注车企能否将成本上涨部分转嫁终端，以及10月15-16日欧盟理事会峰会关于自2027年起对中国HEV/PHEV设定年度出口配额（初拟35万辆、之后每年增长6%）的决定。
China's Ministry of Finance unexpectedly announced that export VAT rebates for passenger NEVs will be reduced to 9% from the current 13% starting April 2027, earlier than anticipated. The cut applies only to passenger NEVs, not ICEs nor NEV heavy-duty trucks, so Sinotruk is not affected. Those with high passenger NEV export exposure — BYD, Leapmotor, Geely and, to a lesser extent, Great Wall and Chery Auto — could see a 2027 earnings impact. Our sensitivity analysis assumes OEMs export more cars before the 1 April 2027 effective date, FOB prices of ~Rmb150k for BYD, Geely and Great Wall, ~Rmb110k for Chery and ~Rmb90k for Leapmotor, and unchanged MSRPs. On this basis, the potential 2027E earnings hit is ~18% for BYD and Leapmotor, ~10% for Geely, and single digits (6-8%) for Great Wall and Chery Auto. What to watch next: how OEMs respond and whether they can pass on the cost increase, and the EU Council summit on 15-16 October decision on an annual export volume quota for Chinese HEVs/