野村中国宏观经济点评指出，2026年三季度GDP同比增速由二季度的4.3%回升至4.5%，略高于市场预期的4.4%和野村预测的4.3%。9月工业增加值、社会消费品零售总额和固定资产投资同比分别升至5.5%、1.1%和-7.2%，8月分别为5.2%、0.4%和-10.2%。考虑到基数明显走低、出口保持高增以及有限的政策支持，野村将四季度和全年GDP增速预测分别由4.5%上调至4.8%和4.7%，但维持2027年4.0%的低于市场一致预期的判断。报告认为内需依然疲弱，近期定向货币宽松、房贷补贴和地方额外债券额度等政策规模偏小或未触及增长瓶颈，对股市、国债收益率和消费需求影响有限。2027年出口可能随全球AI热潮降温及欧盟削减中国混动车出口而快速回落，房地产仍在寻底，财政压力制约基建支出和企业投资，预计市场将继续下修预测。
Nomura's China economics note shows Q3 2026 GDP growth rising to 4.5% y-o-y from 4.3% in Q2, slightly above market consensus of 4.4% and Nomura's forecast of 4.3%. In September, industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment growth picked up to 5.5%, 1.1% and -7.2% y-o-y from 5.2%, 0.4% and -10.2% in August, respectively. With a much lower comparison base, elevated export growth and limited policy support, Nomura raises its Q4 and full-year 2026 GDP growth forecasts to 4.8% and 4.7% from 4.5% and 4.5%, while maintaining a below-consensus 4.0% forecast for 2027. Domestic demand remains weak, and recent easing measures—targeted monetary easing, the mortgage subsidy program and extra bond quota for local governments—are seen as either too small in scale or ineffective in addressing the real growth barriers, implying limited market impact. For 2027, export growth may reverse rapidly to the mean as the global AI boom cools and the EU halves China's hybrid car exports, the pr