China Economics: On Track for 2026, Harder Test in 2027

China's cyclical stabilization is playing out as expected. GDP growth rebounded to 4.5% YoY in 26Q3, in line with our above-consensus forecast, while September data showed domestic demand running somewhat better than expected. With recent policy efforts still coming through, we maintain our GDP growth forecast at 4.6% YoY for both 26Q4E and 2026E. As growth stays on track to hit this year's target, we expect policymakers to focus on execution while shelving new stimulus. This near-term stabilization doesn't alleviate our concerns about 2027 and beyond, given: [1] an elevated household savings rate signaling weak consumer sentiment; [2] a potentially bigger property drag ahead, even as price signals turn more favorable; and [3] more early signs of new-economy peaking. A policy pivot could be inevitable, and we watch the year-end Politburo meeting and CEWC for the earliest hints.