摩根大通住房活动指数仍然低迷,主要指标大幅收缩:住宅新开工同比-26.1%、销售-21.3%、开发商资金来源-25.8%;70城新房价格环比降幅略收窄至-0.14%,二手房为-0.26%。一线城市房价继续跑赢,上海、深圳领先,北京新房仍偏弱(环比-0.2%)、二手房小幅转正(+0.1%);新房价格较2021年高点下跌14.3%,二手房下跌23.5%。北京、上海实施细则基本遵循8月28日全国框架,确认从高周转预售模式转向现房销售、加强预售资金监管、竣工后才发放按揭,仅提供分期缴纳土地款、存量项目豁免等有限过渡缓解;上海在定金比例(3%对北京1%)及股、债、ABS、REITs融资支持上更灵活。
JPM's housing activity index remained subdued though the policy index relaxed a bit further. Contraction in major housing indicators remained elevated, including residential floor space starts (-26.1%oya), sales (-21.3%), and developers' funding sources (-25.8%). The decline in NBS 70-city home prices narrowed marginally, -0.14%m/m nsa for new homes and -0.26% for secondary homes. Tier-1 city home prices continued to outperform, led by Shanghai and Shenzhen; Beijing's new home prices fell 0.2%m/m while secondary home prices rose 0.1%. New-home prices are now down 14.3% from their 2021 peak, while secondary home prices have fallen 23.5%. Beijing and Shanghai's implementation guidelines broadly follow the nationwide August 28 framework, confirming the shift away from the high-turnover pre-sales model toward completed-home sales, tighter escrow supervision and mortgage disbursement only after building completion. Both offer limited transitional relief, such as staged land-premium payments