Emerson Electric Co. (EMR): FQ4 26 First Take – Segment EBITA $0.08 ahead; FY27 guide in line with Street expectations, Strong orders growth

EMR reported Q4 adj. EPS of $1.86 vs. our $1.86 est. and the Street's $1.85. Sales were 1% above our est., with adj. EBITA $0.08 beat. Organic orders growth of 14% was above our est. of HSD% growth. We do not expect a major share price reaction, given an in-line guide and fairly elevated investor expectations. 2027 guidance: EMR initiated FY27 adj. EPS guidance of ~$7.25, vs. our expectation of a ~$7.20-7.40 guide, our estimate of $7.35, and the Street at $7.27. Interest expense guidance was above where some had modeled, due to debt refinancing; this has been flagged by the Co. Underlying sales growth was guided to ~5%, with 7-8% in SS, ~4% in ID and 3-4% in SP. Adj. segment EBITA margins are guided to ~29%. FCF is guided to $3.8-3.9bn, vs. our estimate of $4bn, tax rate at ~21%, and ~$3.8B is expected to be returned to shareholders via ~$1.3bn dividend and ~$2.5bn share repurchase. Q1 guide: the Q1 adj. EPS guide is ~$1.58-1.62 vs. JPMe/Street at $1.66/$1.62, with underlying sales gro