德意志银行全球固定收益周报（2026年10月16日）汇编本周利率策略核心观点。债券市场策略回顾其一个月前在10年期美债收益率约5%时转为中性久期的决定，理由是前端定价已明显超出合理水平（实际中性利率约2%，名义约4.25%）。报告梳理可能触发方向性久期交易的五大催化剂：即将公布的银行贷款调查（美联储SLOOS与欧央行BLS）、财政政策（美国中期选举、法国预算压力、中国财政空间）、AI资本开支、供给冲击以及季节性因素。结论认为，货币政策收紧效应、选举对财政的影响、法国预算压力、美国AI资本开支下修风险及季节性，可能推动收益率短期回落；但地缘政治环境通过欧洲AI资本开支上行风险和新的负向供给冲击，在结构上支持长端利率走高。报告另含美国9月CPI预览（预计同比3.63%，低于市场定价与彭博一致预期）、欧元区EGB相对价值、日本利率策略以及 covered bond 与 SSA 供给分析。
Deutsche Bank's Global Fixed Income Weekly (16 October 2026) compiles the week's key rates strategy research. The bond market strategy notes the shift to neutral duration a month ago, when 10-year UST yields traded near 5%, as front-end pricing had materially exceeded what the team could justify (roughly 2% in real terms, up to 4.25% nominal). The report identifies five potential catalysts for outright duration trades: upcoming lending surveys (Fed SLOOS and ECB BLS), fiscal policy (US midterms, French budget pressure, China's policy space), AI capex, supply shocks and seasonality. It concludes that cyclical and tactical factors may support a near-term retracement in yields, while the geopolitical backdrop remains structurally supportive of higher long-term rates through upside risks to European AI capex and the potential for new negative supply shocks. The publication also includes a US September CPI preview (3.63% y/y expected, below market pricing and consensus), EGB relative value,