德意志银行美国利率策略团队本周观点：尽管9月通胀数据偏热，美债收益率曲线全周仍整体下行，因市场对人工智能盈利能力的担忧质疑基础设施投资节奏并收紧金融条件。团队认为，AI投资放缓净效果将是曲线牛陡，反映总需求走弱与短期通胀压力缓解，因此维持久期中性，并讨论了宏观组合中直接方向性交易的潜在催化剂——银行贷款调查、财政政策、AI资本开支、供给冲击以及季节性因素。具体交易上，看好2s10s陡峭化、做多5s10s SOFR期限溢价、互换利差陡峭化，并新开3个月国库券与OIS的多头（利差）头寸，认为国库券已足够便宜，可补偿前端投资者对进一步加息被定价的风险。周报同时涵盖财政部再融资调查问卷前瞻、9月CPI市场预览（预测同比3.63%，低于市场定价与彭博一致预期）以及美债供给久期偏长、法国OAT利差等专题。
Treasuries rallied across the curve this week despite hot September inflation data, as concerns around AI profitability called into question the pace of infrastructure buildout and tightened financial conditions. As discussed previously, we think a slowdown in AI investment would be on net a bull steepener for the curve, reflecting softer aggregate demand and easing near-term inflation pressures. We remain neutral on duration and discuss catalysts for outright trades for the macro portfolio, namely the forthcoming lending surveys, fiscal policy, AI capex, supply shocks and, more tactically, seasonality. Locally in US rates, we favor 2s10s steepeners, long 5s10s SOFR term premia, and swap spread steepeners. We also initiate a 3m bill-OIS long, with bills now cheap enough to compensate front-end investors for the risk of further hikes being priced. The weekly also previews Treasury's refunding questionnaire and September CPI (forecast 3.63% y/y, below market pricing and Bloomberg consens