Coupang Inc. (CPNG): Consumer checks, regulatory assessment and cost analysis suggest in-tact V-shaped 2027 earnings recovery, albeit with slightly lower margin recovery

Goldman Sachs highlights three points on Coupang (CPNG): 1) consumer channel checks show users returning to Coupang given its superior experience, though returnees may not spend at historical levels, which could weigh on near-term top-line growth but drive more spending growth in time; 2) its assessment of regulatory overhangs suggests limited fundamental impact; 3) normalization of Product Commerce (PC) gross margin to 2025 levels and a moderated pace of PC fixed-cost O&G&A growth are prerequisites to meet 2Q27 margin guidance, which GS views as feasible. GS remains bullish on a V-shaped 2027 recovery (2027E group adj. EBITDA of US$2.5bn, comprising US$3.5bn PC adj. EBITDA and a DO loss of US$948mn), and with continued share price correction the stock trades at a compelling 8x 2027E EV/adj. EBITDA. GS lowers its PC adj. EBITDA margin assumption to 8.7% (implying group adj. EBITDA of US$2.5bn and 5.3% margin) from 9.6%, more aligned with management's guidance of full PC margin normaliz