Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG.N): 3Q26 Final Bite: Still Gaining Share

CMG posted better-than-expected comp growth (+2.1% vs. Street +1.5%, with positive traffic), suggested trends slowed in early 4Q, but have since improved and, importantly, reiterated '26 comp guidance (+LSD%). The company continues to reinvest in margin to drive results, keeping the bull-bear debate around the LT margin opportunity alive. However, we continue to believe brands spending more on the business will translate into accelerating share gains and, in CMG's case, result in consistent traffic growth/upward margin pressure which should support mid-teens EPS growth and further multiple expansion over time. Key points management follow-up: (1) 4Q started off on softer footing (tracking industry trends and after +3.8% SSS in Sept), but traffic improved in recent weeks and CMG's penciling in ~2% comps for the Q (with 3-4% exit rate into '27), supported by the Brisket launch next week, marketing intensity and likely another couple rounds of BOGOs. (2) Margin investment continues, with