Investor Day Preview: Expect FY30 Raise Led by Stronger Monetization of Compute Despite Capacity Hurdles; Access to Capital & Visibility to Peak Capex More Crucial to Share Price

Oracle shares have struggled in recent months on medium-term concerns around (1) its ability to deliver to compute capacity/revenue plans given execution challenges at certain large datacenter sites, and (2) leverage and further access to capital markets (debt and equity) needed to keep pace with other AI infrastructure builders. Ahead of the investor day, J.P. Morgan expects management to raise its FY30 revenue targets contrary to concerns around execution on the ramp, even though the company is unlikely to reiterate annual targets through FY30, which we view as aligning guidance practices with peers rather than a signal of concern. Relative to the prior framework, JPM's forecasts imply about $12B upside to FY30 revenue and $15B to OCI revenue, with only modest upside to the $21 PF EPS target after dilution from the recent equity offering. Investors will focus on the divergence of gross and net capex, with gross capex of $90-95B (net ~$70B) driving FCF burn above $32B in FY27 and $25B