Lithium: Global BEV sales in September flat YTD

Key takeaways from the September EV sales data: (1) Global BEV sales (China + EU + US) in September were -4% YoY at 1,144k units but flat YTD YoY; global BEV penetration increased to 28% (vs 27% in Aug'26). (2) China BEV penetration remained at 45% in September, with BEV sales up 5% MoM but down 28% YoY at 733k units, while total EV (BEV+PHEV) penetration increased to 67% (from 65%). (3) US BEV sales were flat MoM at 81k units and are down 31% YTD; BEV penetration remained at 6%. (4) EU-10 BEV September sales were up 10% YoY to 330kt and up 42% YTD; BEV penetration remained at a 29% high. In terms of lithium, we continue to forecast a deficit market through to 2028, and see the recent sharp decline in prices as sentiment-driven - lithium fundamentals appear encouraging with strong ESS demand, flat EV sales, and aggressive carbonate inventory drawdown. Our top pick in the lithium space is PLS.