2026年上半年中国增长动能走弱、财政支出偏慢，7月政治局会议要求加快财政支出与债券资金使用进度。我们预计未来数月政府债券（国债与地方债）净发行明显放量，9-10月月度净发行将升至GDP的1%，高于上半年月均约0.6%。本文评估债券供给增加对债券收益率与互换利率的影响。历史经验显示，发行放量对10年期国债收益率影响不一，取决于央行流动性管理、财政资金支出节奏以及增长、通胀与政策利率预期的变化。在控制增长与通胀预期及银行间资金面相对央行政策目标的松紧后，测算国债净发行加速0.2%的GDP将推升1年期国债收益率4.8bp、5年期2.0bp、10年期1.5bp，说明供给冲击主要经由短端资金面传导，导致曲线走平；1年期国开债与1年期IRS同样敏感，地方债发行与国债收益率关系不明确。
After softer growth momentum and slower-than-expected fiscal spending in H1 2026, government bond issuance—including both central and local government bonds—is picking up, echoing the July Politburo meeting's call to accelerate fiscal spending. We expect total net issuance to rise meaningfully in the coming months, with monthly net issuance reaching 1% of GDP during September-October versus a monthly average of around 0.6% of GDP in H1. This note examines whether heavier bond supply could put upward pressure on bond yields and swap rates in China. Historical episodes suggest mixed effects on 10-year CGB yields, with the response depending on PBOC liquidity management, the speed of fiscal-proceeds spending, and shifts in growth, inflation and policy-rate expectations. Controlling for changes in growth and inflation expectations and changes in interbank funding tightness relative to the PBOC's policy target, we estimate larger sensitivity at the front end of the CGB curve: a 0.2%-of-GDP