向高十几%的ROTE迈进

We lower EPS by 2% despite higher buybacks, keep our price target unchanged and retain the Overweight rating on ING Groep. Net interest income and fee estimates are unchanged after 3Q26, though we cut other income toward the lower end of the €2.7-2.9bn range. We lift 2026 costs by 2% on higher restructuring charges, including an extra €200mn in 4Q, of which €175mn relates to wholesale banking restructuring. On capital, we raise buybacks to €3bn in 2026 and 2027 from €2.5bn, CET1 rises 10bps, and we see scope for more SRTs given only 28bps of CET1 relief achieved so far versus closer to 100bps at more optimised peers. We expect ING's June 2027 capital markets day to target a high-teens ROTE, 18-19% by 2030, and we value the bank off an ROTE of about 18% by 2028. The stock trades on 1.6x 2027 tangible net asset value and 9.7x 2027 earnings.