Global Hotels & Leisure: OTAs Q3 preview: Numbers in line, Agents the Provacateur

Fundamentals are likely to take a back seat at Q3 earnings. This may be the biggest EBITDA quarter for all three OTAs, but the debate will be dominated by Muse and the threat agentic booking poses to the OTA business model. Until recently, Prisoner's Dilemma dynamics kept Booking and Expedia moving in lockstep: both launched ChatGPT apps and partnered with Google's AI Mode hotels product. Now their strategies are diverging. Expedia partnered with Muse within two weeks of launch, while Booking has so far held back, instead investing $100m in its own agent, Vayo. Meanwhile, traffic data points to a relatively benign Q3, with AI/agentic traffic likely still LSD. Healthy web traffic but softer app engagement suggests small beats at Airbnb and Booking and a small miss at Expedia. With the Middle East normalising and FY27 commentary still premature, expect agentic strategy, rather than Q3 fundamentals, to dominate the Q&A. Web traffic remains healthy across online travel, despite weakening a