Take-Two Interactive: Return to Vice City

We recommend buying December call spreads on Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) to position ahead of earnings (Nov 9) and the launch of GTA VI (Nov 19). TTWO shares are down 20% YTD as sentiment has turned more cautious. A potential guidance raise on the earnings call and, more importantly, a well-received GTA VI launch could reverse recent sentiment and push TTWO back towards its YTD highs. Our internet analysts have TTWO as a high-conviction idea with a $310 price target (~52% upside) for Dec'27. They estimate Take-Two's FY27 Net Bookings guidance implies about 34M unit sales, in line with the roughly 33M units sold in GTA V's first fiscal year, or about $2.2B in Net Bookings, and view this expectation as conservative given higher brand awareness versus the GTA V launch, the eventual rollout of GTA Online, and incremental PC contribution over time. Their recent U.S. gamer survey showed 71% intend to buy GTA VI, including ~39% who have already pre-ordered or plan to pre-order;