Edwards Lifesciences (EW): Preparing for PROGRESS: Counting on HF Events and Symptomatic Moderate AS

The upcoming readout of Edwards' PROGRESS trial at TCT in October is one of the few MedTech catalysts to watch before we turn to 2027, and expansion into moderate aortic stenosis (AS) represents one of the few remaining untapped opportunities for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Putting our analysis together, we believe improvements in heart-failure events and quality of life should be enough to generate a statistically significant positive efficacy result (>80% confidence) and a non-inferior safety result, which would support an expansion into moderate AS, a significant market opportunity. A mortality benefit will be very hard to show given the two-year timeframe and how the trial is designed (many patients in the control arm are expected to get TAVR at some point), leaving mortality purely as a best case upside surprise result. We are Overweight EW with a Dec 2027 price target of $105, reflecting a ~27x multiple on our 2028E EPS.