巴基斯坦与越南10月通胀在食品价格带动下双双回落，目前尚无明显厄尔尼诺影响的迹象。能源价格仍是压力来源：巴基斯坦以基本不增加财政负担的方式压低油价，包括临时调整成品油定价公式、把部分成本转移给炼厂，同时考虑调整液化石油气定价公式，以腾出财政空间向低收入家庭发放定向现金补贴；越南则通过减税缓冲。巴基斯坦10月整体通胀由9月的10.3%降至9.6%，主要原因是食品与住房价格走软、电价下调，城市核心通胀降至7.8%。摩根大通据此把全年平均通胀预测由9.2%下调至9.0%，并预计到2027年6月逐步回落至6.9%，重回5%至7%目标区间上沿，前提是油价沿远期曲线下行且财政政策保持既定轨道。越南制造业10月表现强劲，但潜在动能有所减弱；科技出口推动贸易顺差创纪录高位，美国301调查结果可能于11月落地。
Inflation in Pakistan and Vietnam eased in October, driven by food prices, with no evidence of an El Niño impact so far. Fuel prices remained a source of pressure that governments are seeking to ease at little budgetary cost in Pakistan and through tax cuts in Vietnam. Vietnam's manufacturing performance was strong in October, but underlying momentum appeared to soften, while the trade balance swung to a record surplus, driven by tech exports. A decision in the U.S. Section 301 investigation into Vietnam could come in November, and our baseline remains for cumulative tariffs to stay in line with the October 2025 framework agreement. Pakistan's headline annual inflation slowed to 9.6% in October from 10.3% in September, driven by softer food and housing prices and lower electricity costs. Given these developments, we lower our average annual inflation forecast to 9.0% from 9.2% previously, and project inflation to ease gradually to 6.9% by June 2027.