野村研报显示，2026年10月中国CPI同比涨幅回落至0.7%，低于市场预期的0.8%与9月的0.9%；PPI同比则进一步升至5.7%，高于预期的5.3%和9月的5.0%。食品与黄金是拖累CPI的主要因素，其影响超过了油价上涨带来的提振；PPI上行主要由原油价格推动，下游行业PPI同比持平于-0.1%，说明在国内需求疲弱的情况下，价格传导效应有限。核心CPI同比由1.0%回落至0.8%，服务价格小幅降至0.7%。受低基数影响，猪肉价格同比回升至-8.6%，但环比转为负增长；存储设备、电脑与手机等AI相关产品价格同比大幅上涨，合计推高CPI约0.26个百分点。展望11月，随着中东局势缓和预期升温、美国中期选举后油价回落至约96美元/桶，叠加食品与黄金价格走低，该行预计CPI同比降至0.5%，PPI同比或明显回落至5.0%左右。
CPI inflation softened to 0.7% y-o-y in October, below market expectations (Consensus and Nomura: 0.8%) and the September reading of 0.9%. PPI inflation increased further to 5.7% y-o-y in October, above market expectations (Consensus: 5.3%; Nomura: 4.9%) and the September reading of 5.0%. Food and gold were main drags on CPI inflation, as they more than offset the boost from higher oil prices. The higher PPI inflation reading was primarily driven by oil, while downstream-sector PPI remained subdued; it was unchanged at -0.1% y-o-y in October and suggests limited pass-through effects amid weak domestic demand. With falling oil prices amid renewed hopes for breaking the stalemate in the Middle East, we expect PPI inflation to drop markedly in November. In view of falling prices of oil, food and gold, we expect CPI inflation to drop further to 0.5% y-o-y in November, while PPI inflation could drop more significantly to around 5.0% y-o-y.