应对利率上升的布局

This cross-sector thematic report examines how a shift toward Fed tightening and higher rates will reshape the North American equity landscape. J.P. Morgan economists expect the fed funds rate to move from 4.00% to 4.25% in December before staying on hold, with the 10-year yield hovering near ~5.00% as it forms new, higher ranges. The equity strategy view holds that earnings growth is the key anchor: based on roughly 80 years of analysis, the relationship between the 10-year yield and S&P 500 multiples follows an inverted "U," and if current earnings projections are realized, equities should withstand a 10-year yield closer to 5.5-6.0%, particularly if AI-led productivity growth supports a higher-multiple environment. With a shallow hiking cycle as the base case (a reversal of last year's insurance cuts), the team stays in Growth and Quality Growth, favoring large caps over smaller companies;