Nobody wants to be a hero. Tech view unchanged but drawdown in SOX/SPX rivals 2008 i.e. a tactical AI infra bounce before year-end is possible. Brazil vs. MXEF P/E is high. ASEAN's next decade.

Revival of the AI trade fuelled broad-based gains and carried into Asia, though there is nothing approaching a full-scale return to risk-on and nobody has strong incentives to be a hero ahead of a big week; the desk stays on Quality over Risk. The tech view is unchanged: since August the desk has argued for a more balanced thematic/factor exposure - longs and shorts across AI Infra (Inference), Capex Spenders (Hyperscalers) and Vulnerables (AI-resilient Software) - rather than a giant Semis vs. Software trade. Monetization and the related financing bottleneck are unresolved, but technicals are supportive: positioning, sentiment and factor moves are showing bottoming signals, and the drawdown in SOX vs. SPX now rivals 2008, suggesting tech may be under-pricing the longevity of the capex cycle. A tactical bounce in AI infra before year-end is possible, with Powering AI and some industrial names likely to outperform on a rebound. Brazil vs. MXEF P/E remains high after repricing;