Softbank Group (9984): NAV Discount: -48% (-27.5ppt YTD): Share Price ¥4.3K (-2.8% YTD) vs. NAV ¥8.3K (+49.1% YTD)

This Morgan Stanley update on Softbank Group (9984.T) focuses on the widening NAV discount. As of October 23, 2026, the shares traded at ¥4,276, down 2.8% YTD, versus NAV per share of ¥8,300, up 49.1% YTD, implying a NAV discount of -48.4%, 27.5ppt wider YTD. By component, ARM rose 103% YTD, other assets rose 33%, and net debt increased 88% YTD to ¥-14,488bn, for total NAV of about ¥46,904bn. Higher AI asset exposure supports a narrowing NAV discount; the price target of ¥5,500 applies an NAV discount of around 40%. Rating is Equal-weight with an In-Line industry view. Upside risks include a recovery to a robust IPO market and falling interest rates that lift equity values of growth and private companies; downside risks include a continuing bear market leading to fewer IPOs and cautious investment decisions.