Commercial Aircraft: ISTAT EMEA; Aftermarket, fuel, IGT, OE - Putting out fires with gasoline; Top ten themes from Copenhagen

This week was the ISTAT EMEA conference in Copenhagen, bringing together nearly 2,000 professionals from airlines, aircraft and engine OEMs, leasing companies, suppliers and MRO providers; here we describe our top ten takeaways. High fuel prices have created concerns about the commercial aircraft aftermarket, but so far there has been little measurable impact. Sentiment was broadly positive with solid values, few retirements and large backlogs for parts and shop visits, yet jet fuel has moved above $180 ($192 in Europe) with Brent crude and crack spreads higher. Air Baltic's bankruptcy, Nok and Gol restructurings, and pressure at AirAsia and VietJet suggest distress, and lessors acknowledge problems if high fuel prices persist over the next twelve months. Narrowbody demand remains high but legacy utilization is weakening, with V2500 worst hit while CFM56 holds up, supported by FTAI's plan to convert CFM56s into aeroderivative industrial gas turbines (100 deliveries planned in 2027). Wi