Ajinomoto (2802.T): Forge site visit: Could become a business similar to ABF

We visited Forge Biologics (Forge), Ajinomoto's wholly owned gene therapy contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) subsidiary on 13 October. Our impression was positive. Our sense was that Forge has the potential to achieve strong sales growth and a high level of profitability over the long term and become the "next ABF." Forge was established in 2020 and acquired by Ajinomoto in 2023. Revenue was $34mn in 2023 but increased to approximately $100mn by 2025. The revenue target for 2026 is about $170mn. It currently supplies more than 60 drug developers. Some pipeline products are expected to reach commercialization in 2027 and the company forecasts revenue of approximately $300-400mn by 2030. At the time of the acquisition, Forge was positioned as a Tier 3 player, but its market share has improved to the Tier 1 level. What stood out was the high level of productivity;