ASML Holding (ASML.AS): 3Q26 First Take: 4Q26 guidance above cons, with strong visibility and orders underpinning capacity expansion

ASML's 3Q26 revenue came in line with Visible Alpha Consensus Data and EBIT came in 5% above consensus driven by gross margins of c.57% (vs VA cons at 56%) due to stronger contributions from installed base revenues and upgrade business reflecting customers' willingness to be more productive. The company again upgraded its guidance for 2026 and now expects revenue of between €44bn and €45bn (vs. €43bn to €45bn prior) with gross margin of around 56% (vs. 54%-56% prior). As such, we note that the guide for 2026 implies revenue 1% ahead of consensus at the mid-point. Furthermore, ASML reiterated its positive view on the growth opportunities in the EUV business this year and expects it to grow 45% yoy, with its non-EUV business growth to be around 20% yoy and installed base management business expected to grow 50% yoy. Additionally, management reiterated that it expects to ship 65 units in 2026. As such, the company stated that its targeted planned EUV capacity increase of 30% in both 2027/